The ferroalloy industry is expected to show a promising development prospect in 2025, with production maintaining a steady growth. The core driving forces come from the expansion of demand in downstream industries, policy support for green transformation, and breakthroughs in technological innovation.
Analysis of Core Driving Factors
Output and demand continue to increase.
In 2024, the output of ferroalloys reached 362.43 million tons, increasing by 4.6% compared to the previous year. It is expected that the output will exceed 382 million tons in 2025. The expansion of demand in the downstream sectors such as steel, machinery manufacturing, and new energy vehicles is the main driving force. In particular, the market size of silicon-manganese alloys is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030.
The expansion of overseas markets has been remarkable. Southeast Asia, India and the Middle East have become new growth points for exports. It is expected that the export volume of iron-based amorphous strip materials will approach 100,000 tons by 2025.
2.The green and low-carbon transformation is accelerating.
The industry is promoting transformation through the carbon trading mechanism. The electricity consumption for each ton of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon production is as high as 8,000 kilowatt-hours and 4,000 kilowatt-hours respectively. The allocation of carbon quotas and the green certification system have become the key levers.
Regions such as Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, which are rich in resources, have emerged as new production bases for silicon-manganese alloys thanks to the cost advantages of new energy power.
Evolution of the market competition landscape
1.Increase in market share concentration
The top ten silicon-manganese enterprises have a market share of over 50%. Large and medium-sized enterprises have strengthened their dominant position by upgrading their technology and equipment, while small enterprises have achieved differentiated competition in specific fields.
The rare earth iron alloy sector has benefited from the demand for neodymium iron boron magnetic materials. It is projected that the global consumption of rare earth permanent magnetic materials will reach 305,200 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.88%.
2.Technological Innovation and Standard Construction
Enterprises are accelerating the integration of process transformation with AI technology, and in the field of iron-based amorphous alloys, breakthroughs in quality issues are being achieved through interdisciplinary research.
The industry is promoting the establishment of a full life cycle green standard system, and strengthening carbon emission monitoring from raw material procurement to recycling and disposal.
Risks and Challenges
1.Cost and policy pressures
The prices of rare earth oxides have fluctuated significantly (approximately 520,500 yuan/ton), and in addition to this, the investment in environmental protection technological upgrades has placed enterprises under double cost pressures.
Under the parallel operation of carbon tax and carbon trading mechanism, enterprises with an annual production capacity of over one million tons need to bear additional compliance costs of tens of millions of yuan.
2.acute structural imbalance
The redundant construction of low-end production capacity leads to waste of resources. Inferior products cause a crisis in market trust, forcing the industry to accelerate its consolidation.
From Baidu